This app pulls the current 3-month and 10-year treasury bond rates from the trea sury.gov website and uses them to calculate an estimate of the chance of a reces sion occurring in the next year. It turns out that this relatively simple measur e significantly outperforms most other analyses at predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead. This app also features a display of the current yield curve, a graph of bond yie lds against bond terms. An upward sloping yield curve is an indicates a normal e conomy; a flat or downward sloping yield curve foretells a recession.
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