Recession Probability
Recession Probability
FreeThis app pulls the current 3-month and 10-year treasury bond rates from the trea
sury.gov website and uses them to calculate an estimate of the chance of a reces
sion occurring in the next year. It turns out that this relatively simple measur
e significantly outperforms most other analyses at predicting recessions two to
six quarters ahead.
This app also features a display of the current yield curve, a graph of bond yie
lds against bond terms. An upward sloping yield curve is an indicates a normal e
conomy; a flat or downward sloping yield curve foretells a recession.
